"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo)
05/20/2020 at 10:00 • Filed to: None
1
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"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo)
05/20/2020 at 10:00 • Filed to: None | 1
| 37 |
T
he “usual” flu season varies state-by-state in deaths per capita (i.e. per 100,000 people). For the worst flu season since 1976, four states had 26-29 deaths/capita, and another sixteen states had 22-25 deaths/capita.
For the still-in-progress COVID-19 pandemic 3/1-5/18/20, eight states and D.C. have been severely hit with 48-146 deaths/capita, and another five states badly affected with 26-34 deaths/capita. De
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COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. as of 5/18/20
Hardest-hit regions NY, NJ, CT, MA 85-146/capita
2nd tier LA, MI, Washington DC, RI: 48-56/capita
IL, IN, DE, MD, PA: 26-34/capita
CO, MS: 18-21/capita
ALL OTHER STATES: 16 or fewer/capita, with thirteen states at 5 or fewer/capita as of 5/18/20.
In California’s 58 counties, two have 15-18 deaths/capita. All others have 11 or fewer deaths/capita, with 36 counties at three or fewer deaths/capita. 15 have zero deaths/capita.
CA COVID-19 Deaths per capita (100,000) by County
Mar 1 – May 18, 2020
Entire state: 8 per 100,000
Los Angeles 18
Tulare 15
Riverside 11
Yolo 10
San Mateo 9
Imperial 8
San Diego 7
San Bernardino 7
Santa Clara 7
Mono 7
Mariposa 6
Inyo 6
Marin 6
Alameda 5
Stanislaus 5
San Joaquin 4
San Francisco 4
Sacramento 4
Solano 4
San Benito 3
Ventura 3
Kern 3
Contra Costa 3
Orange 3
Santa Barbara 2
Placer 2
Shasta 2
Merced 2
Napa 2
Sutter 2
Monterey 2
Fresno 2
Tehama 2
Kings 1
Yuba 1
Madera 1
Santa Cruz 1
Nevada 1
Sonoma <1
San Luis Obispo <1
Alpine 0
Amador 0
Butte 0
Calaveras 0
Colusa 0
Del Norte 0
El Dorado 0
Glenn 0
Humboldt 0
Lake 0
Mendocino 0
Plumas 0
Siskiyou 0
Trinity 0
Tuolumne 0
MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:10 |
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For the still-in-progress COVID-19 pandemic
This is the problem with comparing it to any flu season...it’s not done yet. Even so, we can clearly see it’s worse than a typical flu season (you are already comparing it to the worst flu season).
We need to begin opening up, but the mess that is Wisconsin right now is NOT the way to do it. No statewide rules, it’s just a patchwork county by county. Bars absolutely should not be open and maybe even restaurants. Other businesses should be open but with customer limits and other typical precautions. The situation here I see becoming a shit show in about a month or so . I keep hearing about the bars being packed with absolutely no one wearing a mask (not even the employees).
ranwhenparked
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:10 |
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Yes, for such a large state with several dense metro areas , California’s impact has been encouragingly light, frankly so have Texas and Florida.
In the case of Delaware, we only have 3 counties, but 2 of them are clearly well past the peak, but the 3rd still has a major and growing hotspot, concentrated in a tight area around the major chicken processing plants, that the state just can’t get a handle on. Close quarters working conditions, and a large amount of undocumented workers, which is complicating the response efforts for several reasons.
SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:14 |
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At some point, they’ll release a data visualization of all the information, SORTED BY AGE. It’s an eye-opener.
sony1492
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:18 |
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Humboldts virus has seen a resurgence, no tests came up positive for over a week but for the past week or so its been steady at 4-5 positive per day and this past week 2 have died. This is mostly due to an outbreak at a nursing home
Milky
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:19 |
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Well I was curious about Detroit naturally, were at 187 per capita .
All the surrounding counties are near 100. Suburb dads desperate to get their cabins makes me worry for my family up north.
Bman76 (hates WS6 hoods, is on his phone and has 4 burners now)
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:20 |
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It’s almost like California’s aggressive measures worked or something...
Cash Rewards
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:22 |
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Virginia seems to be doing a decent job. The majority of the state has reopened. However, the hardest hit northern counties have banded together to stay closed with the governor's blessing. My particular country has 30 deaths per capita, more than half of all deaths in the state (300/550).
MrSnrub
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:26 |
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Presumably it would have been much worse without the shutdowns
The Snowman
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:28 |
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There is a possibility the numbers are low because they shut down . It would be nice to see these compared to S outh Dakota since they took such a different approach.
Akio Ohtori - RIP Oppo
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:38 |
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I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: This pandemic is going to fuel academic papers for the next 20 years.
someassemblyrequired
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:49 |
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The place where it all went wrong was the one size fits all approach . Lockdowns should have been by region, and non-essential travel prohibited between regions, with quarantine/testing enforced as you moved between regions (even within a state - especially one like CA).
They did this in parts of Canada, they shut down the borders between several small provinces, with quarantine required for arriving essential travelers and health checkpoints at all entry points. They have started to reopen adjacent provinces where they’ve seen no new cases in two weeks to pretty much normal, with some sensible precautions (no large gatherings, masks). They also did a ton of testing, early on, with the better test, which would have helped enormously here in the US.
MonkeePuzzle
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 10:54 |
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it’s way to early to assume we have sufficiently accurate data to make any comparison against dissimilar illnesses for which we have years of more reliable data.
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MonkeePuzzle
> Bman76 (hates WS6 hoods, is on his phone and has 4 burners now)
05/20/2020 at 11:10 |
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and even if they didnt.. it’s almost like it was worth doing in case they worked or something
DipodomysDeserti
> The Snowman
05/20/2020 at 11:13 |
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Arizona did not really shu t down (much less so than CA). We look a lot more like CA than South Dakota. Our per capita death rate is around 9.
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DipodomysDeserti
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 11:17 |
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What you also have to keep in mind is that our flu death rate is with a vaccine and antivirals, plus hundreds of years of us learning how to fight the three viruses. With all that, it still kills a bunch of people.
Lots of people die of diseases every year, even if we can fight them.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Bman76 (hates WS6 hoods, is on his phone and has 4 burners now)
05/20/2020 at 11:20 |
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[ Arizona looking around].
Our per capita death rate is nine. People here were still golfing.
Nom De Plume
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 11:26 |
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T hought your parole involved abstaining from licentious politicizing and, shall we say, heated shit stirring until the boiling point has been exceeded on hot button topics.
I’d thank you to leave these types of diagnosis to those with some qualification.
krustywantout
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 11:33 |
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Looking at data is what we should be doing to determine how we need to balance keeping everyone safe but continuing to live our lives. My feeling is that when you see the rates of deaths in the higher states, they have much higher density than California plus those states have higher % of their population that are older. California also has less people that are living on top of each other in multifamily residences/apartments that have poor ventilation. I know in Massachusetts, we have a lot of older buildings that have HVAC systems that are not bringing enough fresh air into the buildings. New data on the virus is indicating that transmission has more to do with what we breath in/air quality than what we touch. When you see the problems with nursing homes and data from New York showing people that are “staying home” are getting infected, it tells me that the more people are spending time in static air environments that are creating higher concentration of virus in the air. Dosage of the virus is also critical to how someone gets infected and severity of infection.
I also want to add that there isn’t a single approach that works for the country due to the variations in types and ages of residences, buildings , climate, and density of population. One thing for sure is that everyone needs to work together to follow good hygiene and mitigation procedures.
Lastly, w e are all have concerns for our health and our livelihood so let’s make sure we all have a thorough prospective on the path forward. As in business, the best deal is the one where all sides feel like they were screwed. Stay safe.
Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com
> SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
05/20/2020 at 11:38 |
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https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52308783
BBC ran this last month that at the time 9 out of 10 deaths had a pre-existing medical conditions (I’d love to see that 0-69 split to 0-39 and 40-69). I had also read somewhere earlier that 8 out of 10 patients put on ventilators passed away anyways.
Now perhaps this has changed, I don’t know. But it logically makes sense,
so I doubt it has
.
nermal
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 12:12 |
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The overwhelming majority of deaths are from old people in nursing homes with multiple other “co-morbidities”.
The virus basically accomplished two things. First, it significantly altered the economy. Second, it sped up the rotting process for old people that nobody cared about that got thrown into nursing homes to wither away and die.
Highlander-Datsuns are Forever
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 12:13 |
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I still maintain that if we had good clear and logical national leadership with well researched guidelines we would be in a much better place today.
With all the states doing their own thing there is a possibility of things getting very weird over the next few months and especially into next winter. The overall trends for infection rates really has yet to subside. I’d like to see this curve flat or barely creeping upwards before we go on a free for all bodily fluid exchange.
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DipodomysDeserti
> MonkeePuzzle
05/20/2020 at 12:31 |
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Yeah, putting tens of millions of people out of work just to see if it works is always a great idea!
Even if it doesn’t work, those working class people can just become welfare class!
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MonkeePuzzle
> DipodomysDeserti
05/20/2020 at 12:44 |
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k
fintail
> Nom De Plume
05/20/2020 at 13:22 |
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He’s qualified, last I heard some rube who wants to avoid lawful orders (laws only count for immigration, dontcha know) is maybe going to him to launch action against the state.
I’d wager if mommy or auntie etc was claimed by the pandemic, the song would be different. The “expense” line is also rich, coming from the group who didn’t say a word about the 2017 deficit-exploding tax cuts.
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fintail
> MonkeePuzzle
05/20/2020 at 13:26 |
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Not to mention the accuracy of politically-charged data is now up for discussion as well (and that some US states aren’t firmly rooted in the first world) :
What a world.
You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
> Nom De Plume
05/20/2020 at 14:25 |
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Care to explain to us how posting data with absolutely no commentary of any kind is diagnosing, shit stirring or politicizing anything?
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You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 14:41 |
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It’s almost like government isn’t really good at reacting to quickly evolving situations, and once you give them the authority to control everything they don’t want to give up that power.
The point of the lockdowns was supposed to be to give hospitals time to build up PPE stocks, ICU capacity, etc. Now the lockdowns have morphed into governors saying “we can’t open up until there is 100% safety”. It sucks living in a rural area of a hard hit state. There are hospitals in the rural areas that are on the verge of closing permanently because their revenue is down 30-70% from what I’m hearing.
What good are closets full of PPE doing when the damn hospital had to close since they weren’t allowed to perform elective procedures and haven’t had money coming in for months? There are people who would be getting diagnosed with cancer, etc. if they were able to get these “elective” procedures done. Instead they aren’t going to find some of these problems until its too late to treat them. Then it’s “sorry, you’re going to die from cancer, but had we been able to do a colonoscopy on you a month or two ago we could have treated you”.
gettingoldercarguy
> fintail
05/20/2020 at 15:19 |
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DriveTribe
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gettingoldercarguy
> fintail
05/20/2020 at 15:22 |
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Weird, I always go to my attorneys for medical advice and my wife for legal advice.
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Nom De Plume
> You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
05/20/2020 at 15:31 |
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It’s almost like they were unnecessary and targeted mitigation would have worked better. A number of states that did not respond like Califormia are on the low end of this list, and it increasingly looks like what was done had very little effect. If course, unless you believe the original inaccurate models that were based on a mortality rate many times greater than the reality.
This was his reply to the first post that loaded.
Which doesn’t absolve him of presenting “data” in such a manner it would be easily assimilated without question of validity before moving on to “diagnosis of a political response.”
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DipodomysDeserti
> MonkeePuzzle
05/20/2020 at 15:52 |
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To be clear, this was in regards to our shit handling of public health, not our need to live more sustainably. Although shutting down the economy may eventually help with that, so maybe there is a silver lining.
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You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
> Nom De Plume
05/20/2020 at 17:52 |
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You respond to a post that only included data by accusing it of politicizing and shi t stirring, now when I question you you respond by quoting a comment in the discussion. The post that you accuse of shi t stirring had none of that, yet your response was clearly intended to stir shit.
Why are you so scared of people having opinions that don’t agree with yours that you would shout them down and prevent others from having an open discussion?
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Nom De Plume
> You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
05/20/2020 at 18:16 |
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My post was not directed at you. It was answered by the the person I directed it towards. Thanks for playing and troll harder next time.
Fin(n)
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You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much
> Nom De Plume
05/20/2020 at 21:45 |
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Please enlighten me and let me know how asking a simple question of you is trolling?
Also please answer my question regarding why you don’t want people to have an open discussion regarding opinions you don’t agree with.
Neil drives a beetle and a fancy beetle
> ImmoralMinority
05/20/2020 at 21:58 |
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I guess I’m not sure what makes the data all that interesting. States that are dense and acted slowly had a high death rate that overshadows any modern flu; states like where I am, that had stay at home orders in place far enough in advance and are substantially suburban and rural have in many ways limited Covid deaths to be equivalent or less than any modern Flu season.
But the data on Covid is incomplete and we’ve never gone on lockdown for the flu. And we did for Covid. I dunno.
I suspect you are sharing this data to encourage less aggressive Cubs response. What if the entire country had a death rate similar to New York, would stay at home seem justified then?
gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> someassemblyrequired
05/20/2020 at 22:06 |
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20th of march I went to the store . M y rural supermarket was 1/4 out of state plates from a high infection area.
RI should have been repeated everywhere.
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someassemblyrequired
> gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
05/20/2020 at 22:59 |
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Yep, and I think it’s even more important to reduce movement as things reopen. Much better to have “bubbles” where things are normal than living in fear that some knuckle dragging Floridian with COVID will turn up in their brodozer and run their hands that haven’t been washed in days over everything they see.